In the second half of 2026, who can capture the incremental capital beyond Bitcoin?

In the second half of 2026, the market is truly seeking not the next Bitcoin, but a complete on-chain financial system that is taking shape.

Truthfully, the market has started to change its script.

In the past few years, the biggest question was whether institutions would buy Bitcoin.

Now that the Bitcoin ETF has launched and institutional funds have entered, the new question is: will banks use stablecoins for payments? Will funds bring traditional assets on-chain? Will more financial services gradually shift to Ethereum and Solana?

According to CoinDesk data, BTC dominance has dropped from about 61.2% in early April and May to about 58.5%.

The decline may not seem dramatic, but the capital signal behind it is clear: the market is looking for new opportunities beyond Bitcoin.

However, don't rush to declare altseason.

This time, part of the decline in BTC dominance did not flow to ETH, Solana, or other altcoins, but instead shifted to stablecoins. This suggests many investors may simply be reducing risk and waiting for opportunities, rather than preparing to rush into altcoin markets.

Therefore, what truly matters in the second half of 2026 is not which token will suddenly surge, but which mainline can absorb institutional funds, generate genuine demand and sustainable revenue, and convert that revenue into asset value.

Next, we focus on analyzing four mainlines: stablecoin infrastructure, RWA, ETH, and Solana.

Which mainline has the fastest implementation? Which is easiest to gain institutional recognition? Which type of asset has the highest price elasticity? And which projects are merely riding the hype to inflate valuations?

Understanding these can help you avoid buying the wrong things even if your direction is correct.

First, get the most important thing straight

Bitcoin has not lost its core status.

It remains the foundational asset in the crypto market and the digital asset most easily understood and allocated by institutions. Digital gold, ETFs, institutional allocation, and halving cycles—these logics still hold.

However, these stories have already been fully digested by the market.

What capital markets love most are often not fully told stories, but new stories that are just beginning to be validated and have potential for continuous expansion.

Therefore, in the second half of 2026, the real question is not who will replace Bitcoin, but who can capture the incremental capital beyond Bitcoin.

If we observe based on the certainty of industrial implementation and institutional acceptance, I would prioritize stablecoin infrastructure first, followed by RWA. ETH and Solana represent trading opportunities for settlement and high-frequency execution layers respectively.

Note, this is not a simple ranking of token price increases.

Stablecoins and RWA are industrial mainlines, while ETH and Solana are directly tradable assets. Analyzing them together helps us understand where capital might flow next, not that they belong to the same investment opportunity.

Stablecoin Infrastructure

Let's start with the most certain mainline, stablecoin infrastructure.

Stablecoins are no longer just trading tools within the crypto circle; they are gradually becoming global payment and settlement infrastructure.

As of early June 2026, the global stablecoin market size has approached $320 billion, with the vast majority still being USD stablecoins.

Wow, the crypto community talks about decentralization every day, yet the most frequently used currency in the on-chain world is still the US dollar.

Bitcoin is more like digital gold, while stablecoins are more like digital cash.

What happens daily in the financial world is not repeatedly buying and selling gold, but transfers, payments, financing, collateral, and settlement.

In the past, a cross-border payment often required banks, correspondent banks, foreign exchange, and clearing systems. The process could take days and was not cheap.

Stablecoins can operate 24/7, funds can be transferred across borders within minutes, and they can directly connect with smart contracts and on-chain financial products.

This is the true power of stablecoins.

However, stablecoins themselves won't rise from $1 to $2 just because the market is hot. If they did, it would not be an investment opportunity but a de-pegging incident.

Therefore, what is truly worth studying in the stablecoin narrative is not whether stablecoins will rise, but who manages and reserves them, who controls payment, wallet, and user entry points, and who can consistently charge fees from cross-border settlements, on-chain foreign exchange, and capital flows.

The price of stablecoins won't double, but the infrastructure built around them could see growing revenue.

In other words, gold prospectors may not make money, but those who sell tools and collect tolls often have more stable business.

The US is incorporating stablecoins into its regulatory framework, and markets like Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea are also promoting local currency stablecoins and related regulations.

Banks, payment companies, and fintech platforms are entering the space.

This indicates that the stablecoin competition has left the small table of the crypto circle and is entering the national currency and global payment system.

Stablecoin infrastructure may not be the direction with the highest price elasticity, but it has the clearest usage demand and is easiest to gain institutional recognition.

RWA

After stablecoins, the second mainline to focus on is RWA, real-world asset tokenization.

It sounds complex, but simply put, it means putting traditional assets like U.S. Treasuries, funds, credit, gold, etc., on-chain.

RWA does not create new assets.

It changes the way assets are registered, traded, collateralized, and settled.

This logic is very suitable for institutions.

Institutions may not believe that some new token can increase tenfold, but they thoroughly understand government bonds, funds, collateral, and clearing efficiency.

According to CoinGecko's 2026 RWA report, the tokenized RWA market size reached approximately $19.3 billion by the end of Q1, with tokenized U.S. Treasuries remaining the largest category.

Compared to traditional financial markets, $19.3 billion is still very small.

But precisely because the scale is still small, the future growth space is worth paying attention to.

Bitcoin solves whether there is a store-of-value asset on-chain.

RWA solves whether massive traditional financial assets can enter the on-chain system.

The global bond, fund, credit, real estate, and stock markets far exceed the current crypto market. Even if a very small portion is moved on-chain, it could bring huge demand for issuance, custody, trading, and settlement.

Previously, a fund share could only be registered, traded, and redeemed within the traditional financial system.

In the future, it can become an on-chain token, transferable 24/7, usable as collateral, callable by smart contracts, and settled in real-time with stablecoins.

Assets generate returns.

Stablecoins complete payments.

Public chains handle recording and settlement.

Once this system truly operates, on-chain finance will no longer be just internal crypto trading but will start connecting real assets and traditional financial markets.

However, RWA also has a very big pitfall.

RWA market growth does not mean all RWA concept coins will rise.

Many people see the three letters RWA and rush in without even understanding what the project does.

Truthfully, this is not investing in an industry trend; it's chasing marketing slogans.

Those who truly benefit from the RWA trend may be asset issuance platforms, custodians, oracles, clearing networks, and the public chains that host the assets.

As for some altcoins under the RWA banner, they may have neither real assets nor actual revenue. The only real thing may be the money paid by retail investors.

Therefore, when researching RWA projects, at least three questions should be asked.

1. Are there real assets on-chain?

2. Where does the income generated by these assets ultimately flow?

3. Can the related tokens truly capture this income?

If any one is missing, it might just be a repackaging of traditional financial stories.

The RWA narrative is strong, but finding the real beneficiaries is not as simple as it sounds.

Ethereum

If stablecoins are the money on-chain and RWA is the assets on-chain, then the most important value of Ethereum is to host these funds and assets.

A large number of stablecoins, RWA products, DeFi protocols, and institutional pilots revolve around Ethereum and its L2 ecosystem.

BlackRock's BUIDL, Franklin Templeton's on-chain fund, and tokenized products like Ondo are all closely tied to the Ethereum ecosystem.

Ethereum is not the fastest network, nor does it necessarily have the lowest transaction costs.

But in financial markets, trust is often more important than speed.

Institutions are not only concerned about how much money a transaction can save, but also about whether the legal structure is clear, the custody system is mature, the network security record is reliable, the developer ecosystem is stable, and most importantly, where the funds and liquidity are.

In these areas, Ethereum still has a clear advantage.

This is also the most valuable aspect of ETH.

Buying ETH is not just betting on a public chain, but also betting that Ethereum can continue to be an important settlement network for institutional on-chain finance.

But the problem with ETH is equally real.

The expansion of the Ethereum ecosystem does not mean that the growth value will necessarily be transmitted to the ETH price.

The more L2s, the more fees and user activity can be dispersed. The larger the RWA scale, it does not necessarily mean that every transaction will consume large amounts of ETH. Although ETFs provide an institutional entry point, how staking rewards are transmitted will still affect ETH's attractiveness.

So ETH is not a no-brainer trade.

It is more like a core asset waiting for the market to re-understand and re-price.

In the second half of 2026, ETH needs to focus on three catalysts.

1. Can ETH ETF funds continue to flow back?

2. Will the market re-recognize ETH's value as a settlement layer for stablecoins and RWA?

3. Can the growth of the Ethereum ecosystem be more clearly converted into ETH value?

If these three things gradually materialize, ETH will have the opportunity to shift from long-term underperformance to true re-pricing.

Solana

Now let's look at Solana.

Solana may be the mainline with the highest price elasticity among these.

Its advantages are very straightforward: fast speed, low cost, good user experience, and active on-chain trading.

According to Solana's Q1 report from Galaxy Research, the stablecoin scale on Solana has grown to approximately $15.45 billion, with growth for three consecutive quarters.

It also maintains strong DEX trading activity.

This shows that Solana is not just relying on market narratives; it indeed has users, funds, and real trading demand.

Solana is more suitable for hosting high-frequency on-chain activities, including payments, trading, consumer applications, prediction markets, and other products that require low-cost execution.

When market sentiment heats up and a large number of users re-enter on-chain trading, Solana usually attracts more traffic, which is why SOL has higher price elasticity.

However, elasticity always has two sides.

The Solana ecosystem is still relatively dependent on speculative trading cycles.

When the market is hot, trading volume, fees, and user activity all go up; when the market cools down, these data can also drop sharply.

Galaxy Research's report also points out that multiple activity metrics in Solana's Q1 declined, and ecosystem revenue still shows clear cyclicality.

This point needs to be understood.

Solana does have growth, but whether that growth is stable enough needs further verification. The level of institutional trust it currently enjoys is still lower than Ethereum.

So Solana may rise faster, but it may also fall harder during pullbacks.

ETH and Solana represent two different opportunities.

• ETH relies on institutional trust and a mature ecosystem to host stablecoin and RWA settlements.

• Solana relies on speed and low cost to compete for high-frequency trading and consumer applications.

They are not simply substitutes but are competing for different positions in the on-chain financial system.

BTC Dominance Decline Does Not Mean Altseason

After discussing the four mainlines, a reminder is necessary: BTC dominance decline does not mean altseason has arrived.

This time, BTC dominance decline has a readily overlooked reason: part of the funds did not flow to ETH, Solana, or other altcoins, but shifted to stablecoins.

That is, investors may simply be reducing risk and waiting for opportunities.

Therefore, BTC dominance retreat does not mean the altcoin market has fully started.

Seeing BTC dominance decline and randomly buying altcoins is like seeing dark clouds and concluding a heavy rain is imminent.

The direction may be correct, but the timing and targets could be completely wrong.

Bitcoin is still the first asset institutions consider when entering the crypto market and the most important indicator for observing changes in market risk appetite.

But entering the second half of 2026, the market is no longer satisfied with just the Bitcoin story; funds are seeking new growth sources.

• Stablecoins represent payment systems going on-chain.

• RWA represents traditional assets going on-chain.

• ETH represents a trusted settlement network.

• Solana represents a high-frequency execution network.

The concept of 'relay' is not about replacing Bitcoin, but about who can capture the incremental capital beyond Bitcoin.

Three Mistakes Ordinary Investors Easily Make

Now we come to the part that truly requires caution.

In this round of capital rotation, ordinary investors are most likely to make three mistakes.

The first mistake is interpreting relay as Bitcoin's decline.

Relay does not mean replacement.

Gold exists, but that doesn't affect stocks rising. Bitcoin can still rise while other mainlines also receive funds.

Understanding market rotation as selling Bitcoin for other coins can easily result in missing out on both.

The second mistake is seeing stablecoins and RWA popularity and randomly buying related concept coins.

Stablecoin scale growth does not mean platforms with 'stablecoin' in their names can all profit.

RWA scale growth does not mean all related tokens will rise.

You must see where the revenue ultimately flows and whether that revenue can truly transfer to investors.

If you only look at the story without tracking value flow, you might end up with an expensive label.

The third mistake, and the most fatal, is interpreting a good track as a guarantee of profit regardless of selection.

ETH has institutional trust, but that doesn't mean its price will immediately rise.

Solana has trading activity, but that doesn't mean risk has disappeared.

Correct mainline judgment but wrong target and entry timing can still result in losses.

Capital markets are best at making people pay with correct stories at wrong prices.

The logic worth observing is not complicated.

• Stablecoins: look at real payment and settlement volume.

• RWA: look at asset growth and value flow.

• ETH: look at capital return and value capture.

• Solana: look at whether activity can break away from speculative cycles.

Until the logic is validated, don't go all-in just because of the word 'hotspot.'

Don't chase names; chase value.

Don't look at slogans; look at implementation.

Trends change, but logic remains.

Final Important Conclusion

Finally, let's summarize the most important conclusions of today.

If observing based on the certainty of industrial implementation, stablecoin infrastructure and RWA are more worthy of attention, as they already have clear institutional demand and are not entirely dependent on price appreciation.

If observing based on price elasticity, Solana and ETH are worth noting, as they are more likely to become trading targets during market liquidity rotation.

If observing based on institutional acceptance, stablecoins, RWA, and ETH still hold an advantage.

Opportunities are clear.

• Stablecoin infrastructure is vying for global payment and settlement entry points.

• RWA is bringing massive traditional assets onto the chain.

• ETH has the potential to become a key settlement network for institutional on-chain finance.

• Solana is competing for the execution market of high-frequency finance and consumer applications.

Risks are also clear.

• BTC dominance decline does not mean the Bitcoin rally is over.

• Stablecoins and RWA are strong trends, but not all concept assets will rise.

• ETH needs to prove ecosystem growth can translate into its own value.

• Solana has high elasticity but is accompanied by greater cyclical volatility.

At the end of the day, the most worth watching in the second half of 2026 is not who will replace Bitcoin, but whether institutions will move more financial businesses onto the chain.

If the answer is yes, then stablecoins handle fund flows, RWA carries assets, and ETH and Solana compete for settlement and execution demand.

Bitcoin remains digital gold.

But beyond digital gold, a complete on-chain financial system is taking shape.

If you found this analysis useful, feel free to like and subscribe to A Quan Talks Finance.

I will continue to break down which projects in these mainlines can truly generate revenue and which are merely riding the hype to inflate valuations.

Don't wait until the capital rotation ends to realize you were chasing names all along without understanding where the money truly flowed.